FOREX ECONOMICS | ECONOMICS

Pick 5 economic events with a HIGH priority for the week of February 05  and 5 for the week of February 12.  Note the economic event, the expectation and the actual reported statistic.  Also note the effect on the currency against the USD.  If the HIGH priority item was a USD based report, note the affect of the USD.CAD pair.  Write a brief description of the economic event and why it is important.

You can use several tracking sites for the currency pair including CNBC and Yahoo.  However, actually trying to trade on the report will give you broader insight into the link between economic reports and currency fluctuations.  Download the virtual trading system at FXCM here .

You get $50,000 of virtual money.  Make $100,000 trades on each of the 10 reports and see what happens.  The marks you receive are for the report, not for whether you make money or not.

Example:

July 15  German PMI Expected 54, Actual 56.5

(1 mark for the event, the expectation, and the actual read)

EUR strengthened against the USD by 73 pips

(1 Mark for identifying the move on the currency)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

(2 marks)

I bet that the report would come in below expectations and went short the EUR.USD pair.  I lost $730 dollars.

Each item has 4 marks total.  With 10 items, this assignment has a total of 40 marks for a weighting of 20% of the course.

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ECON 360 | Probability Theory and Distributions Assignment | Economics

Question

Below are a number of problems. You need to solve these individually, and write the solution in the report that you submit. The problems are:

A lottery game contains 49 balls, each with a number, ranging from 1 through 49. A player has to choose six numbers. When the lottery is being held, six balls from the set of balls are chosen at random.

• Calculate the probability that the player has picked all six balls correctly.
• Calculate the probability that the player has picked?ve balls correctly.
• Calculate the probability that the player has picked four balls correctly.
• Calculate the probability that the player has picked three balls correctly.
• One lottery ticket costs $1. The payout is as follows:
  • Six correct numbers: 2.5 million dollars.
  • Five correct numbers: Ten thousand dollars.
  • Four correct numbers: Two hundred dollars.
  • Three correct numbers: Ten dollars.

Assuming a player plays the lottery 10 million times, how much can he expect to win or lose?

So, if he were to play inde?nitely, how much can he expect to win or lose for every dollar he wagers?

A blank page consists of a number of horizontal lines, located with a vertical distanceL from each other. You drop a needle of lengthLon the page. What is the probability that the needle will cross one of the lines, if the needle has fallen fully on the page? Note that the needle has to cross a line, lying on top of a line does not count as crossing it.

For Probability Help: Statistical Methods

A lunch place next to an of?ce building is open every day from 11 AM to 3 PM (4 hours). The cost to run the place is $200 per hour. On average the shop receives 11 customers per hour, who spend on average $20 each. On a given day, what is the probability that the shop will work with a loss?

A roulette wheel has 21 red numbers, 21 black numbers, and four zeros. A player places $20 bets on the red numbers. If the roulette spins a red number, the player get his $20 back, and wins another $20. If the roulette does not spin a red number, the player loses his bet. The player sits down with $40, and keeps on playing until he has no more money. How many spins can he expect to be able to play until he has no more money?

Some tips:

Write down the?rst couple of combinations with the lowest number of spins that will bust him. For example, the following combination of spins will bust him after two spins:

loss, loss. Because after the?rst spin he has $20 left, after the second he is broke. The following combinations will bust him after four spins, loss, win, loss, loss, win, loss, loss, loss. In the?rst case, after the?rst spin, he has $20. After the second spin he has $40 again, which he loses after two more spins. In the second case, after the?rst spin, he has $60, which he loses after three spins.

Calculate the probability that the player is bust after 2 spins, after 4 spins, 6 spins, and so on, and add these probabilities up.

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ECO511 ECONOMICS MODELS ASSIGNMENT ECONOMICS

Question 1

“Economic models are false and so government should ignore their predictions.” Explain, discuss and evaluate the accuracy of this statement.

Question 2

Using the economics or other literature (bu

t not the textbook) to identify estimates of the price elasticity of demand for at least three different products. Provide full citations for the employed literature. Comment on the magnitudes of these estimates in relation to the standard economic determinants of the price elasticity of demand.

Rationale

The question addresses the following le

arning outcomes:

1.be able to apply demand and supply analysis to make a range of market related decisions

2.be able to identify and critically evaluate opportunities for specialisation and exchange.

3.be able to make decisions that incorpora

te the relevant benefits and cost analysis.

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